Brazilian Serie B, round 38 · Saturday, 14 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

São Bernardo — Athletic Club MG

Model prediction for 14 November

São Bernardo42%

Draw29%

Athletic Club MG30%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

São Bernardo are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 29%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
São Bernardo are 148 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: São Bernardo — No. 10, 52 pts; Athletic Club MG — No. 14, 47 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Last 2 meetings: São Bernardo 1 win, Athletic Club MG 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: São Bernardo — Athletic Club MG What is xG?		1.4–1.1
São Bernardo not to lose		70%
Athletic Club MG not to lose		58%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		45%
Total under 2.5		55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap São Bernardo
São Bernardo goals
Athletic Club MG goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	São Bernardo	Athletic Club MG
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.1	1.4
xG per match	1.00	1.05
Opponents’ xG	1.56	1.38
Shots	11.3	14.0
On target	3.8	3.6
Corners	4.8	4.8
Cards	2.1	1.6
Possession, %	48	47

Averages per match: São Bernardo — the last 10, Athletic Club MG — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

São Bernardo

02.11away · Cuiabá2:1
24.10Vila Nova3:2
18.10Criciúma0:1
11.10away · Juventude2:2
07.10away · Sport Recife1:2

Athletic Club MG

03.11Ceará2:1
24.10away · Operário-PR0:1
18.10away · Avaí0:0
14.10Londrina2:2
07.10away · Goiás1:2

Head to head

24.07.2026Athletic Club MG — São Bernardo2:1
30.06.2024Athletic Club MG — São Bernardo1:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Goiás	36	16	7	13	38–41	-3	55
10	São Bernardo	36	14	10	12	51–40	+11	52
11	Operário-PR	36	14	9	13	46–48	-2	51
13	Cuiabá	36	11	14	11	33–30	+3	47
14	Athletic Club MG	36	11	14	11	42–41	+1	47
15	Náutico	36	12	10	14	40–46	-6	46

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

22:30
Ponte PretaOperário-PRpreliminary
142363
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
22:30
América-MGAvaípreliminary
462826
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
22:30
LondrinaNáuticopreliminary
482627
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
22:30
FortalezaVila Novapreliminary
522821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Atlético-GOCuiabápreliminary
483022
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:30
CriciúmaNovorizontinopreliminary
453025
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Sport RecifeGoiáspreliminary
472626
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
22:30
CRBCearápreliminary
652114
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →