Brazilian Serie B, round 38 · Saturday, 14 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Londrina — Náutico

Model prediction for 14 November

Londrina48%

Draw26%

Náutico27%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Londrina are clear favourites: 48% against 27% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

League table: Londrina — No. 18, 32 pts; Náutico — No. 15, 46 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
Last 3 meetings: Londrina 1 win, Náutico 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Londrina — Náutico What is xG?		1.8–1.3
Londrina not to lose		73%
Náutico not to lose		52%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Londrina
Londrina goals
Náutico goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Londrina	Náutico
Goals scored per match	1.5	0.9
Goals conceded per match	1.6	1.8
xG per match	1.69	1.24
Opponents’ xG	1.37	1.92
Shots	16.0	15.1
On target	4.7	3.8
Corners	5.9	6.1
Cards	2.0	2.4
Possession, %	48	53

Averages per match: Londrina — the last 10, Náutico — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Londrina

01.11América-MG1:3
25.10away · CRB1:2
21.10Cuiabá1:0
14.10away · Athletic Club MG2:2
08.10away · Avaí1:2

Náutico

01.11Avaí1:0
27.10away · Juventude0:4
20.10away · Goiás0:0
11.10Vila Nova0:2
09.10Novorizontino0:2

Head to head

23.07.2026Náutico — Londrina2:1
10.08.2025Londrina — Náutico0:2
24.08.2024Londrina — Náutico3:2

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
14	Athletic Club MG	36	11	14	11	42–41	+1	47
15	Náutico	36	12	10	14	40–46	-6	46
16	Ceará	36	11	10	15	38–46	-8	43
17, Relegation	Avaí	36	10	7	19	33–46	-13	37
18, Relegation	Londrina	36	8	8	20	45–54	-9	32
19, Relegation	América-MG	36	7	5	24	26–55	-29	26

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

22:30
Ponte PretaOperário-PRpreliminary
142363
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
22:30
São BernardoAthletic Club MGpreliminary
422930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:30
América-MGAvaípreliminary
462826
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
22:30
FortalezaVila Novapreliminary
522821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Atlético-GOCuiabápreliminary
483022
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:30
CriciúmaNovorizontinopreliminary
453025
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Sport RecifeGoiáspreliminary
472626
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
22:30
CRBCearápreliminary
652114
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →