Brazilian Serie B, round 38 · Saturday, 14 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Fortaleza — Vila Nova

Model prediction for 14 November

Fortaleza52%

Draw28%

Vila Nova21%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Fortaleza are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 43%.

Why

By the strength ratings Fortaleza are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Fortaleza are 99 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Fortaleza — No. 4, 62 pts; Vila Nova — No. 3, 63 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Fortaleza: unbeaten in 5.
Days of rest before the match: Fortaleza 12, Vila Nova 14.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fortaleza — Vila Nova What is xG?		1.4–0.8
Fortaleza not to lose		79%
Vila Nova not to lose		48%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		43%
Both teams to score: no		57%
Total over 2.5		38%
Total under 2.5		62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Fortaleza
Fortaleza goals
Vila Nova goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Fortaleza	Vila Nova
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.5
Goals conceded per match	0.7	0.8
xG per match	1.28	1.15
Opponents’ xG	0.81	0.96
Shots	13.2	14.3
On target	3.8	4.8
Corners	4.7	5.1
Cards	1.9	2.8
Possession, %	56	47

Averages per match: Fortaleza — the last 10, Vila Nova — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Fortaleza

02.11Atlético-GO0:0
25.10away · Ponte Preta2:2
17.10away · Sport Recife2:0
12.10CRB2:2
08.10away · América-MG1:0

Vila Nova

31.10Juventude2:2
24.10away · São Bernardo2:3
19.10Novorizontino2:2
11.10away · Náutico2:0
08.10Cuiabá0:0

Head to head

22.07.2026Vila Nova — Fortaleza2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Promotion	Juventude	36	18	11	7	47–25	+22	65
3, Promotion play-offs	Vila Nova	36	18	9	9	52–38	+14	63
4, Promotion play-offs	Fortaleza	36	16	14	6	43–31	+12	62
5, Promotion play-offs	Criciúma	36	18	8	10	38–30	+8	62

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

22:30
Ponte PretaOperário-PRpreliminary
142363
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
22:30
São BernardoAthletic Club MGpreliminary
422930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:30
América-MGAvaípreliminary
462826
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
22:30
LondrinaNáuticopreliminary
482627
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
22:30
Atlético-GOCuiabápreliminary
483022
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:30
CriciúmaNovorizontinopreliminary
453025
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Sport RecifeGoiáspreliminary
472626
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
22:30
CRBCearápreliminary
652114
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →