Brazilian Serie B, round 38 · Saturday, 14 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Criciúma — Novorizontino

Model prediction for 14 November

Criciúma45%

Draw30%

Novorizontino25%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Criciúma are clear favourites: 45% against 25% for the opponent, draw 30%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated Criciúma higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Criciúma — No. 5, 62 pts; Novorizontino — No. 1, 67 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Novorizontino: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Criciúma 2 wins, Novorizontino 2, 1 draw.
Days of rest before the match: Criciúma 14, Novorizontino 12.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Criciúma — Novorizontino What is xG?		1.3–0.9
Criciúma not to lose		75%
Novorizontino not to lose		55%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		47%
Both teams to score: no		53%
Total over 2.5		42%
Total under 2.5		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Criciúma
Criciúma goals
Novorizontino goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Criciúma	Novorizontino
Goals scored per match	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded per match	1.1	0.8
xG per match	1.12	1.79
Opponents’ xG	0.57	0.88
Shots	18.0	18.7
On target	3.6	6.5
Corners	7.7	6.2
Cards	2.7	2.4
Possession, %	59	45

Averages per match: Criciúma — the last 10, Novorizontino — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Criciúma

31.10Ponte Preta2:0
24.10away · Sport Recife1:2
18.10away · São Bernardo1:0
13.10América-MG1:0
09.10away · Ceará0:1

Novorizontino

02.11Operário-PR2:1
24.10away · Atlético-GO1:0
19.10away · Vila Nova2:2
13.10Ponte Preta5:1
09.10away · Náutico2:0

Head to head

22.07.2026Novorizontino — Criciúma0:1
23.08.2025Criciúma — Novorizontino2:0
22.04.2025Novorizontino — Criciúma1:1
25.11.2023Novorizontino — Criciúma2:0
22.07.2023Criciúma — Novorizontino0:1

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Novorizontino	36	19	10	7	64–31	+33	67
2, Promotion	Juventude	36	18	11	7	47–25	+22	65
4, Promotion play-offs	Fortaleza	36	16	14	6	43–31	+12	62
5, Promotion play-offs	Criciúma	36	18	8	10	38–30	+8	62
6, Promotion play-offs	Sport Recife	36	14	13	9	48–39	+9	55

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

22:30
Ponte PretaOperário-PRpreliminary
142363
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
22:30
São BernardoAthletic Club MGpreliminary
422930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:30
América-MGAvaípreliminary
462826
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
22:30
LondrinaNáuticopreliminary
482627
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
22:30
FortalezaVila Novapreliminary
522821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Atlético-GOCuiabápreliminary
483022
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:30
Sport RecifeGoiáspreliminary
472626
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
22:30
CRBCearápreliminary
652114
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →