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Brazilian Serie B, round 38 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)

Ponte Preta — Operário-PR

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Model prediction for 14 November

Ponte Preta14%
Draw23%
Operário-PR63%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Operário-PR are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Operário-PR are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Operário-PR are 159 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Ponte Preta — No. 20, 15 pts; Operário-PR — No. 11, 51 pts. A gap of 36 pts.
  • Ponte Preta: winless in 5.
  • Last 3 meetings: Ponte Preta 0 wins, Operário-PR 2, 1 draw.
  • Days of rest before the match: Ponte Preta 14, Operário-PR 12.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ponte Preta — Operário-PR What is xG?0.9–1.8
Ponte Preta not to lose37%
Operário-PR not to lose86%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Ponte Preta
  • Ponte Preta goals
  • Operário-PR goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatPonte PretaOperário-PR
Goals scored per match0.51.3
Goals conceded per match2.41.5
xG per match0.720.94
Opponents’ xG2.041.57
Shots9.512.7
On target3.33.2
Corners2.34.7
Cards3.72.8
Possession, %3351

Averages per match: Ponte Preta — the last 10, Operário-PR — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Ponte Preta

  • 31.10away · Criciúma0:2
  • 25.10Fortaleza2:2
  • 17.10Atlético-GO1:1
  • 13.10away · Novorizontino1:5
  • 07.10Juventude0:2

Operário-PR

  • 02.11away · Novorizontino1:2
  • 24.10Athletic Club MG1:0
  • 18.10away · América-MG0:1
  • 12.10Goiás0:2
  • 08.10Botafogo SP1:2

Head to head

  • 23.07.2026Operário-PR — Ponte Preta3:2
  • 24.08.2024Ponte Preta — Operário-PR0:1
  • 11.05.2024Operário-PR — Ponte Preta1:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
10São Bernardo3614101251–40+1152
11Operário-PR361491346–48-251
12Botafogo SP361391441–39+248
19, RelegationAmérica-MG36752426–55-2926
20, RelegationPonte Preta36362721–78-5715

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

  • São BernardoAthletic Club MGpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
  • América-MGAvaípreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • LondrinaNáuticopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • FortalezaVila Novapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
  • Atlético-GOCuiabápreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • CriciúmaNovorizontinopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
  • Sport RecifeGoiáspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • CRBCearápreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →