Brazilian Serie B, round 38 · Saturday, 14 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Sport Recife — Goiás

Model prediction for 14 November

Sport Recife47%

Draw26%

Goiás26%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Sport Recife are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings Sport Recife are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Sport Recife are 82 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Sport Recife — No. 6, 55 pts; Goiás — No. 9, 55 pts.
Goiás: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Sport Recife 1 win, Goiás 2, 2 draws.
Days of rest before the match: Sport Recife 14, Goiás 11.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sport Recife — Goiás What is xG?		1.5–1.0
Sport Recife not to lose		74%
Goiás not to lose		53%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Sport Recife
Sport Recife goals
Goiás goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Sport Recife	Goiás
Goals scored per match	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded per match	1.3	1.0
xG per match	1.30	1.45
Opponents’ xG	1.25	1.70
Shots	15.0	17.3
On target	4.4	5.5
Corners	4.6	6.0
Cards	2.0	2.3
Possession, %	52	58

Averages per match: Sport Recife — the last 10, Goiás — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Sport Recife

31.10away · Botafogo SP1:1
24.10Criciúma2:1
17.10Fortaleza0:2
11.10away · Atlético-GO1:1
07.10São Bernardo2:1

Goiás

03.11CRB2:1
28.10away · Ceará2:0
20.10Náutico0:0
12.10away · Operário-PR2:0
07.10Athletic Club MG2:1

Head to head

23.07.2026Goiás — Sport Recife1:1
19.09.2024Sport Recife — Goiás1:1
01.06.2024Goiás — Sport Recife3:0
27.12.2020Goiás — Sport Recife1:0
07.09.2020Sport Recife — Goiás2:1

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5, Promotion play-offs	Criciúma	36	18	8	10	38–30	+8	62
6, Promotion play-offs	Sport Recife	36	14	13	9	48–39	+9	55
7	Atlético-GO	36	14	13	9	42–33	+9	55
8	CRB	36	16	7	13	54–51	+3	55
9	Goiás	36	16	7	13	38–41	-3	55
10	São Bernardo	36	14	10	12	51–40	+11	52

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

22:30
Ponte PretaOperário-PRpreliminary
142363
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
22:30
São BernardoAthletic Club MGpreliminary
422930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:30
América-MGAvaípreliminary
462826
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
22:30
LondrinaNáuticopreliminary
482627
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
22:30
FortalezaVila Novapreliminary
522821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Atlético-GOCuiabápreliminary
483022
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:30
CriciúmaNovorizontinopreliminary
453025
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
CRBCearápreliminary
652114
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →