EFL Championship, round 15 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Birmingham City — Swansea City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Birmingham City are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Birmingham City are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Birmingham City are 108 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Birmingham City — No. 3, 26 pts; Swansea City — No. 5, 26 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Birmingham City 2 wins, Swansea City 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Birmingham City — Swansea City What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Birmingham City not to lose | 77% | |
| Swansea City not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Birmingham City
- Birmingham City goals
- Swansea City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Birmingham City | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.76 | 1.48 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| Shots | 15.1 | 11.3 |
| On target | 5.8 | 4.0 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 60 |
Form
- 03.11Millwall3:0
- 31.10away · Lincoln City3:1
- 24.10away · Cardiff City0:1
- 17.10Queens Park Rangers3:0
- 13.10Preston North End4:0
- 03.11away · Portsmouth1:3
- 31.10Blackburn Rovers4:0
- 24.10away · Queens Park Rangers0:5
- 17.10West Ham United0:1
- 13.10away · Millwall1:0
Head to head
- 08.08.2026Swansea City — Birmingham City0:1
- 17.01.2026Swansea City — Birmingham City1:1
- 20.09.2025Birmingham City — Swansea City1:0
- 13.01.2024Birmingham City — Swansea City2:2
- 05.08.2023Swansea City — Birmingham City1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | +13 | 28 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | +13 | 26 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | +5 | 26 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | +5 | 26 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | +5 | 25 |
Championship on the same day
- 3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- 2225532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 5726181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →