EFL Championship, round 15 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Preston North End — Southampton
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Southampton are clear favourites: 56% against 20% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Southampton are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Southampton are 275 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Preston North End — No. 24, 5 pts; Southampton — No. 1, 28 pts. A gap of 23 pts.
- Preston North End: winless in 5; Southampton: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Preston North End 1 win, Southampton 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Preston North End — Southampton What is xG? | 1.1–1.9 | |
| Preston North End not to lose | 44% | |
| Southampton not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Preston North End | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 1.13 | 1.55 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.71 | 1.33 |
| Shots | 10.8 | 14.2 |
| On target | 2.4 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 38 | 54 |
Form
- 03.11Sheffield United2:3
- 31.10away · Stoke City0:2
- 24.10West Bromwich Albion1:1
- 17.10away · Wrexham1:4
- 13.10away · Birmingham City0:4
- 03.11away · West Bromwich Albion1:1
- 31.10Queens Park Rangers4:1
- 24.10away · West Ham United3:2
- 17.10Bolton Wanderers0:0
- 14.10away · Norwich City1:0
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Preston North End — Southampton1:3
- 01.11.2025Southampton — Preston North End0:2
- 16.04.2024Southampton — Preston North End3:0
- 25.10.2023Preston North End — Southampton2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Southampton | 14 | 8 | +15 | 28 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | +13 | 28 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 14 | 1 | -18 | 7 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 14 | 1 | -18 | 5 |
Championship on the same day
- 3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- 4927231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2225532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- 5726181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →