EFL Championship, round 15 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Cardiff City — Burnley
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Cardiff City are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- In recent matches the betting market rated Cardiff City higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Cardiff City — No. 18, 14 pts; Burnley — No. 22, 10 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Burnley: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Cardiff City 1 win, Burnley 3, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Cardiff City 7, Burnley 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cardiff City — Burnley What is xG? | 1.7–1.4 | |
| Cardiff City not to lose | 72% | |
| Burnley not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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- Handicap Cardiff City
- Cardiff City goals
- Burnley goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Cardiff City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.89 | 1.21 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.60 | 1.52 |
| Shots | 16.3 | 13.1 |
| On target | 6.0 | 3.9 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 59 | 48 |
Form
- 31.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers0:3
- 24.10Birmingham City1:0
- 17.10away · Middlesbrough2:2
- 13.10Watford5:1
- 10.10away · Blackburn Rovers1:2
- 03.11away · Queens Park Rangers1:1
- 31.10Portsmouth0:0
- 24.10away · Lincoln City1:4
- 16.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:2
- 13.10Charlton Athletic2:2
Head to head
- 23.09.2025Burnley — Cardiff City1:2
- 04.03.2025Cardiff City — Burnley1:2
- 17.08.2024Burnley — Cardiff City5:0
- 08.05.2023Burnley — Cardiff City3:0
- 01.10.2022Cardiff City — Burnley1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 21 | Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | -11 | 14 |
| 22, Relegation | Burnley | 14 | 1 | -8 | 10 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 14 | 1 | -18 | 7 |
Championship on the same day
- 3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- 4927231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2225532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 5726181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →