EFL Championship, round 15 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Portsmouth — Stoke City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Portsmouth are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Portsmouth are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Portsmouth are 117 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Portsmouth — No. 10, 22 pts; Stoke City — No. 4, 26 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Portsmouth: unbeaten in 5; Stoke City: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 2 wins, Stoke City 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Portsmouth — Stoke City What is xG? | 1.4–1.0 | |
| Portsmouth not to lose | 74% | |
| Stoke City not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
Model vs market
The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Portsmouth to win” at 46%, the market at 41%.
- Portsmouth to winModel46%odds 2.17Market41%odds 2.45
- DrawModel28%odds 3.57Market30%odds 3.38
- Stoke City to winModel26%odds 3.85Market30%odds 3.38
- Total over 2.5Model45%odds 2.22Market43%odds 2.35
- Total under 2.5Model55%odds 1.82Market57%odds 1.74
- Both teams to score: yesModel50%odds 2.00Market50%odds 2.00
- Both teams to score: noModel50%odds 2.00Market50%odds 2.00
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Portsmouth
- Portsmouth goals
- Stoke City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Portsmouth | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.12 | 1.10 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.15 | 1.42 |
| Shots | 12.7 | 12.8 |
| On target | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 49 |
Form
- 03.11Swansea City3:1
- 31.10away · Burnley0:0
- 24.10Millwall2:1
- 20.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers1:1
- 17.10away · Norwich City1:0
- 03.11away · Blackburn Rovers2:1
- 31.10Preston North End2:0
- 24.10Bristol City0:0
- 17.10away · Derby County1:0
- 13.10Middlesbrough2:3
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Stoke City — Portsmouth1:3
- 25.10.2025Portsmouth — Stoke City0:1
- 22.01.2025Portsmouth — Stoke City3:1
- 02.10.2024Stoke City — Portsmouth6:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | +13 | 26 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | +5 | 26 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | +5 | 26 |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | +5 | 21 |
Championship on the same day
- 3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- 4927231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2225532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 5726181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →