EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Bolton Wanderers — Portsmouth
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Bolton Wanderers 33%, Portsmouth 38%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Bolton Wanderers — No. 16, 17 pts; Portsmouth — No. 10, 22 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Portsmouth: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers — Portsmouth What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Bolton Wanderers not to lose | 62% | |
| Portsmouth not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bolton Wanderers
- Bolton Wanderers goals
- Portsmouth goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Bolton Wanderers | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.29 | 1.12 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.03 | 1.15 |
| Shots | 13.8 | 12.7 |
| On target | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 48 |
Form
- 03.11away · Charlton Athletic1:0
- 31.10Bristol City2:3
- 23.10Middlesbrough1:5
- 17.10away · Southampton0:0
- 13.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers3:1
- 03.11Swansea City3:1
- 31.10away · Burnley0:0
- 24.10Millwall2:1
- 20.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers1:1
- 17.10away · Norwich City1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | +5 | 21 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | -10 | 15 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- Swansea CityWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →