EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Norwich City — Cardiff City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Norwich City are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Norwich City are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Norwich City are 199 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Norwich City — No. 12, 18 pts; Cardiff City — No. 18, 14 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Norwich City: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Norwich City 4 wins, Cardiff City 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Norwich City — Cardiff City What is xG? | 1.9–1.3 | |
| Norwich City not to lose | 76% | |
| Cardiff City not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Norwich City
- Norwich City goals
- Cardiff City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Norwich City | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.02 | 1.89 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| Shots | 12.4 | 16.3 |
| On target | 4.4 | 6.0 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 59 |
Form
- 03.11away · Derby County4:0
- 31.10Watford3:2
- 24.10away · Charlton Athletic3:1
- 17.10Portsmouth0:1
- 14.10Southampton0:1
- 31.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers0:3
- 24.10Birmingham City1:0
- 17.10away · Middlesbrough2:2
- 13.10Watford5:1
- 10.10away · Blackburn Rovers1:2
Head to head
- 25.08.2026Cardiff City — Norwich City1:2
- 03.05.2025Norwich City — Cardiff City4:2
- 02.11.2024Cardiff City — Norwich City2:1
- 17.02.2024Norwich City — Cardiff City4:1
- 11.11.2023Cardiff City — Norwich City2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich City | 14 | 6 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- Swansea CityWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →