EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Lincoln City — Wrexham
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Wrexham are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Wrexham higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Lincoln City — No. 17, 15 pts; Wrexham — No. 19, 14 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lincoln City — Wrexham What is xG? | 1.2–1.3 | |
| Lincoln City not to lose | 60% | |
| Wrexham not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lincoln City
- Lincoln City goals
- Wrexham goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Lincoln City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.62 | 1.22 |
| Shots | 10.4 | 11.8 |
| On target | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Corners | 2.7 | 4.4 |
| Cards | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Possession, % | 38 | 49 |
Form
- 03.11away · Watford0:1
- 31.10Birmingham City1:3
- 24.10Burnley4:1
- 17.10away · Millwall2:2
- 14.10West Ham United0:6
- 30.10away · Sheffield United0:1
- 24.10away · Blackburn Rovers0:2
- 17.10Preston North End4:1
- 13.10West Bromwich Albion1:2
- 10.10away · Derby County1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | -10 | 14 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- Swansea CityWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →