EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Millwall — Queens Park Rangers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Millwall are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Millwall are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Millwall are 85 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Millwall — No. 13, 18 pts; Queens Park Rangers — No. 11, 21 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Millwall 3 wins, Queens Park Rangers 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Millwall — Queens Park Rangers What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Millwall not to lose | 73% | |
| Queens Park Rangers not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Millwall
- Millwall goals
- Queens Park Rangers goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Millwall | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.62 | 1.49 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.26 | 1.10 |
| Shots | 13.8 | 14.0 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 6.1 |
| Cards | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 50 |
Form
- 03.11away · Birmingham City0:3
- 31.10Derby County4:1
- 24.10away · Portsmouth1:2
- 17.10Lincoln City2:2
- 13.10Swansea City0:1
- 03.11Burnley1:1
- 31.10away · Southampton1:4
- 24.10Swansea City5:0
- 17.10away · Birmingham City0:3
- 14.10Derby County4:1
Head to head
- 08.08.2026Queens Park Rangers — Millwall1:1
- 18.04.2026Millwall — Queens Park Rangers2:0
- 18.10.2025Queens Park Rangers — Millwall1:2
- 01.02.2025Millwall — Queens Park Rangers2:1
- 21.09.2024Queens Park Rangers — Millwall1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich City | 14 | 6 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
Championship on the same day
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- Swansea CityWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →