EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Middlesbrough — Bristol City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Middlesbrough are clear favourites: 66% against 13% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Middlesbrough are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Middlesbrough are 235 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Middlesbrough — No. 2, 28 pts; Bristol City — No. 15, 18 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Middlesbrough: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Middlesbrough 0 wins, Bristol City 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Middlesbrough — Bristol City What is xG? | 2.0–0.9 | |
| Middlesbrough not to lose | 87% | |
| Bristol City not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough goals
- Bristol City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Middlesbrough | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 2.13 | 1.60 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.02 | 1.01 |
| Shots | 20.3 | 14.6 |
| On target | 7.2 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 6.7 | 5.8 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 47 |
Form
- 31.10Charlton Athletic3:0
- 23.10away · Bolton Wanderers5:1
- 17.10Cardiff City2:2
- 13.10away · Stoke City3:2
- 10.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
- 31.10away · Bolton Wanderers3:2
- 24.10away · Stoke City0:0
- 17.10Sheffield United0:1
- 13.10Blackburn Rovers0:1
- 10.10away · Charlton Athletic1:1
Head to head
- 14.03.2026Middlesbrough — Bristol City1:1
- 20.12.2025Bristol City — Middlesbrough2:0
- 21.02.2025Bristol City — Middlesbrough2:1
- 19.10.2024Middlesbrough — Bristol City0:2
- 10.02.2024Middlesbrough — Bristol City1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Southampton | 14 | 8 | +15 | 28 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | +13 | 28 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | +13 | 26 |
| 14 | Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- Swansea CityWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →