EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Swansea City — West Bromwich Albion
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Swansea City are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Swansea City are 83 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Swansea City — No. 5, 26 pts; West Bromwich Albion — No. 6, 25 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- West Bromwich Albion: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Swansea City 1 win, West Bromwich Albion 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Swansea City — West Bromwich Albion What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Swansea City not to lose | 70% | |
| West Bromwich Albion not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Swansea City
- Swansea City goals
- West Bromwich Albion goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Swansea City | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 1.48 | 1.49 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.36 | 1.30 |
| Shots | 11.3 | 12.9 |
| On target | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Corners | 3.6 | 6.0 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 60 | 55 |
Form
- 03.11away · Portsmouth1:3
- 31.10Blackburn Rovers4:0
- 24.10away · Queens Park Rangers0:5
- 17.10West Ham United0:1
- 13.10away · Millwall1:0
- 03.11Southampton1:1
- 31.10away · West Ham United3:1
- 24.10away · Preston North End1:1
- 17.10Blackburn Rovers3:2
- 13.10away · Wrexham2:1
Head to head
- 11.01.2026Swansea City — West Bromwich Albion2:2
- 01.01.2026Swansea City — West Bromwich Albion1:0
- 29.11.2025West Bromwich Albion — Swansea City3:2
- 04.01.2025Swansea City — West Bromwich Albion1:1
- 31.08.2024West Bromwich Albion — Swansea City1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | +5 | 26 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | +5 | 26 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | +5 | 25 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | +7 | 24 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →