EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Southampton — Derby County
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Southampton are clear favourites: 66% against 13% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Southampton are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Southampton are 374 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Southampton — No. 1, 28 pts; Derby County — No. 23, 7 pts. A gap of 21 pts.
- Southampton: unbeaten in 5; Derby County: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Southampton 1 win, Derby County 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Southampton — Derby County What is xG? | 2.1–0.9 | |
| Southampton not to lose | 87% | |
| Derby County not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Southampton
- Southampton goals
- Derby County goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Southampton | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| xG per match | 1.55 | 0.96 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.33 | 1.96 |
| Shots | 14.2 | 12.4 |
| On target | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 5.9 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 50 |
Form
- 03.11away · West Bromwich Albion1:1
- 31.10Queens Park Rangers4:1
- 24.10away · West Ham United3:2
- 17.10Bolton Wanderers0:0
- 14.10away · Norwich City1:0
- 03.11Norwich City0:4
- 31.10away · Millwall1:4
- 24.10away · Sheffield United1:1
- 17.10Stoke City0:1
- 14.10away · Queens Park Rangers1:4
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Southampton — Derby County2:1
- 04.10.2025Derby County — Southampton1:1
- 16.01.2019Southampton — Derby County2:2
- 05.01.2019Derby County — Southampton2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Southampton | 14 | 8 | +15 | 28 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | +13 | 28 |
| 22, Relegation | Burnley | 14 | 1 | -8 | 10 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 14 | 1 | -18 | 7 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 14 | 1 | -18 | 5 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- Swansea CityWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →