EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Sheffield United — Watford
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sheffield United are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sheffield United are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Sheffield United are 214 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Sheffield United — No. 9, 22 pts; Watford — No. 20, 14 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Sheffield United: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Sheffield United 5 wins, Watford 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sheffield United — Watford What is xG? | 1.8–0.9 | |
| Sheffield United not to lose | 84% | |
| Watford not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sheffield United
- Sheffield United goals
- Watford goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Sheffield United | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| xG per match | 1.18 | 1.02 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.11 | 1.71 |
| Shots | 12.4 | 12.2 |
| On target | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 50 |
Form
- 03.11away · Preston North End3:2
- 30.10Wrexham1:0
- 24.10Derby County1:1
- 17.10away · Bristol City1:0
- 14.10away · Portsmouth2:3
- 03.11Lincoln City1:0
- 31.10away · Norwich City2:3
- 24.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers0:1
- 17.10Charlton Athletic2:0
- 13.10away · Cardiff City1:5
Head to head
- 18.04.2026Watford — Sheffield United0:2
- 18.10.2025Sheffield United — Watford1:0
- 04.01.2025Watford — Sheffield United1:2
- 01.09.2024Sheffield United — Watford1:0
- 25.02.2023Sheffield United — Watford1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 13 | 6 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 | Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | -11 | 14 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- Swansea CityWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →