EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Stoke City — Birmingham City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Stoke City 33%, Birmingham City 38%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Birmingham City are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Stoke City — No. 4, 26 pts; Birmingham City — No. 3, 26 pts.
- Stoke City: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Stoke City 2 wins, Birmingham City 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Stoke City — Birmingham City What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Stoke City not to lose | 62% | |
| Birmingham City not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Stoke City
- Stoke City goals
- Birmingham City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Stoke City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 1.10 | 1.76 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.42 | 1.43 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 15.1 |
| On target | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 51 |
Form
- 03.11away · Blackburn Rovers2:1
- 31.10Preston North End2:0
- 24.10Bristol City0:0
- 17.10away · Derby County1:0
- 13.10Middlesbrough2:3
- 03.11Millwall3:0
- 31.10away · Lincoln City3:1
- 24.10away · Cardiff City0:1
- 17.10Queens Park Rangers3:0
- 13.10Preston North End4:0
Head to head
- 24.01.2026Birmingham City — Stoke City1:1
- 13.09.2025Stoke City — Birmingham City1:0
- 20.01.2024Stoke City — Birmingham City1:2
- 26.12.2023Birmingham City — Stoke City1:3
- 10.04.2023Birmingham City — Stoke City0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | +13 | 28 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | +13 | 26 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | +5 | 26 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | +5 | 26 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Swansea CityWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →