Brazilian Serie B, round 38 · Saturday, 14 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Juventude — Botafogo SP

Model prediction for 14 November

Juventude60%

Draw25%

Botafogo SP15%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Juventude are clear favourites: 60% against 15% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

By the strength ratings Juventude are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Juventude are 200 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Juventude — No. 2, 65 pts; Botafogo SP — No. 12, 48 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
Juventude: unbeaten in 5; Botafogo SP: unbeaten in 5.
Last 3 meetings: Juventude 1 win, Botafogo SP 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Juventude — Botafogo SP What is xG?		1.6–0.7
Juventude not to lose		85%
Botafogo SP not to lose		40%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		44%
Both teams to score: no		56%
Total over 2.5		43%
Total under 2.5		57%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Juventude
Juventude goals
Botafogo SP goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Juventude	Botafogo SP
Goals scored per match	1.9	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.0	1.0
xG per match	1.67	1.18
Opponents’ xG	1.15	0.99
Shots	15.3	13.3
On target	5.4	3.1
Corners	4.0	6.9
Cards	3.2	2.3
Possession, %	50	49

Averages per match: Juventude — the last 10, Botafogo SP — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Juventude

31.10away · Vila Nova2:2
27.10Náutico4:0
17.10away · Ceará2:2
11.10São Bernardo2:2
07.10away · Ponte Preta2:0

Botafogo SP

31.10Sport Recife1:1
24.10away · Avaí2:0
18.10away · CRB1:0
13.10Ceará1:0
08.10away · Operário-PR2:1

Head to head

24.07.2026Botafogo SP — Juventude4:2
29.07.2023Botafogo SP — Juventude0:2
16.04.2023Juventude — Botafogo SP1:2

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Novorizontino	36	19	10	7	64–31	+33	67
2, Promotion	Juventude	36	18	11	7	47–25	+22	65
3, Promotion play-offs	Vila Nova	36	18	9	9	52–38	+14	63
11	Operário-PR	36	14	9	13	46–48	-2	51
12	Botafogo SP	36	13	9	14	41–39	+2	48
13	Cuiabá	36	11	14	11	33–30	+3	47

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

22:30
Ponte PretaOperário-PRpreliminary
142363
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
22:30
São BernardoAthletic Club MGpreliminary
422930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:30
América-MGAvaípreliminary
462826
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
22:30
LondrinaNáuticopreliminary
482627
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
22:30
FortalezaVila Novapreliminary
522821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Atlético-GOCuiabápreliminary
483022
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:30
CriciúmaNovorizontinopreliminary
453025
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
22:30
Sport RecifeGoiáspreliminary
472626
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →