EFL Championship, round 15 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Watford — Middlesbrough
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Middlesbrough are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Middlesbrough are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Middlesbrough are 169 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Watford — No. 20, 14 pts; Middlesbrough — No. 2, 28 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- Middlesbrough: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Watford 3 wins, Middlesbrough 2.
- Days of rest before the match: Watford 4, Middlesbrough 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Watford — Middlesbrough What is xG? | 1.0–1.9 | |
| Watford not to lose | 40% | |
| Middlesbrough not to lose | 84% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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- Watford goals
- Middlesbrough goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.02 | 2.13 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.71 | 1.02 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 20.3 |
| On target | 3.8 | 7.2 |
| Corners | 3.8 | 6.7 |
| Cards | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 58 |
Form
- 03.11Lincoln City1:0
- 31.10away · Norwich City2:3
- 24.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers0:1
- 17.10Charlton Athletic2:0
- 13.10away · Cardiff City1:5
- 31.10Charlton Athletic3:0
- 23.10away · Bolton Wanderers5:1
- 17.10Cardiff City2:2
- 13.10away · Stoke City3:2
- 10.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Middlesbrough — Watford5:1
- 01.11.2025Watford — Middlesbrough3:0
- 15.02.2025Middlesbrough — Watford0:1
- 05.10.2024Watford — Middlesbrough2:1
- 04.05.2024Middlesbrough — Watford3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Southampton | 14 | 8 | +15 | 28 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | +13 | 28 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | +13 | 26 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 | Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | -11 | 14 |
Championship on the same day
- 3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- 4927231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2225532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →