EFL Championship, round 16 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
West Ham United — Preston North End
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
West Ham United are clear favourites: 76% against 8% for the opponent, draw 16%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings West Ham United are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- West Ham United are 318 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: West Ham United — No. 8, 22 pts; Preston North End — No. 24, 5 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
- Preston North End: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: West Ham United — Preston North End What is xG? | 2.6–0.9 | |
| West Ham United not to lose | 92% | |
| Preston North End not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap West Ham United
- West Ham United goals
- Preston North End goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | West Ham United | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 2.13 | 1.13 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.35 | 1.71 |
| Shots | 17.1 | 10.8 |
| On target | 6.8 | 2.4 |
| Corners | 6.5 | 5.1 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 55 | 38 |
Form
- 31.10West Bromwich Albion1:3
- 24.10Southampton2:3
- 17.10away · Swansea City1:0
- 14.10away · Lincoln City6:0
- 09.10Queens Park Rangers1:1
- 03.11Sheffield United2:3
- 31.10away · Stoke City0:2
- 24.10West Bromwich Albion1:1
- 17.10away · Wrexham1:4
- 13.10away · Birmingham City0:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | +7 | 24 |
| 8, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 13 | 6 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 14 | 1 | -18 | 7 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 14 | 1 | -18 | 5 |
Championship on the same day
- MillwallQueens Park Rangerspreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Norwich CityCardiff Citypreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- SouthamptonDerby Countypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- Bolton WanderersPortsmouthpreliminary3328382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Lincoln CityWrexhampreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- MiddlesbroughBristol Citypreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sheffield UnitedWatfordpreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Stoke CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3330382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →