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Liga de Expansion MX: matchday 15 predictions
30 October – 1 November · 8 matches · season 2026/27 · round over
Liga de Expansion MX matchday 15: 8 matches, 30 October – 1 November. The model expects 3.0 goals per match on average. Its most likely outcome is a home win in 6 matches, an away win in 2. The round is over: the most likely outcome came true in 4 of 8 matches, against 4.5 expected by the model’s probabilities.
The round at a glance
- Biggest favourite · Most goals expectedAtlético La Paz — DoradosAtlético La Paz 76% to win; most likely score 1:0; 3.7 goals on average; over 2.5: 66%; final score 3:0
- Closest matchAlebrijes Oaxaca — Mineros de Zacatecas30% v 41%, draw 30%; final score 1:0
- Possible upsetCancún FC — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-MaderoJaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero 15% to win: the best underdog chance of the round; final score 2:0
What is at stake
Atlético La Paz lead with 30 points from 15 matches; Leones Negros are second, level on points. The leader’s game this round: Atlético La Paz — Dorados, 76% to win; final score 3:0.
The matches
Friday, 30 October
- 3030412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
Saturday, 31 October
- 3127422The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.3.5
- 761591The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
Sunday, 1 November
- 4628271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 4631231The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.5
- 6321151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 741791The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.2
Probabilities: home win, draw, away win in 90 minutes; under the most likely outcome, its most likely score. The estimates are updated until kick-off.