Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Ferrocarril Midland
CA Ferrocarril Midland — Gimnasia y Tiro
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3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, CA Ferrocarril Midland to win (48%), came true.
CA Ferrocarril Midland are clear favourites: 48% against 22% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CA Ferrocarril Midland — Gimnasia y Tiro What is xG? | 1.4–0.9 | |
| CA Ferrocarril Midland not to lose | 78% | |
| Gimnasia y Tiro not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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- Handicap CA Ferrocarril Midland
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- Gimnasia y Tiro goals
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Match events
- 33′Gonzalo Manuel Soto · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 35′Marcos Roseti · CA Ferrocarril Midland1:0
- 48′Matías Flores · CA Ferrocarril Midland2:0
- 86′Fabricio Rojas · own goal · CA Ferrocarril Midland3:0
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Jonás Aguirre ↔ Rubén Villarreal · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 46′Matías Birge ↔ Juan Rocca · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 67′Walter Montoya ↔ Juan Capano · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 67′Nicolás Contín ↔ Tiago Banega · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 67′Mauro Daniel Frattini ↔ Matías Flores · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 73′Rodrigo Cao ↔ Ezequiel Bulacio · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 73′Lautaro Laharque ↔ Isaías Andrada · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 80′Pablo Rodriguez ↔ Nicolás Rinaldi · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 88′Jesús Camaño ↔ Genaro Cepeda · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 88′Lucas Escobar ↔ Mauro Leguiza · CA Ferrocarril Midland
Lineups
CA Ferrocarril Midland
- GKMauro Leguiza88′
- DFLuciano Leonel Recalde
- DFIsaías Andrada73′
- DFGenaro Cepeda88′
- DFPablo Casarico
- MFRamiro Luna
- MFNicolás Violini
- MFMarcos Roseti
- FWJeremías Perales
- FWEzequiel Bulacio73′
- FWMatías Flores67′
Came on (5)
- GKLucas Escobar2′
- DFLautaro Laharque17′
- MFJesús Camaño2′
- FWRodrigo Cao17′
- MFMauro Daniel Frattini23′
Gimnasia y Tiro
- GKFederico Cosentino
- DFManuel Guanini
- DFRubén Villarreal46′
- DFJuan Galetto
- DFGonzalo Manuel Soto
- MFTiago Banega67′
- MFNicolás Rinaldi80′
- MFJuan Capano67′
- FWJuan Rocca46′
- FWFabricio Rojas
- FWLautaro Gordillo
Came on (5)
- MFWalter Montoya23′
- FWNicolás Contín23′
- MFMatías Birge44′
- MFPablo Rodriguez10′
- MFJonás Aguirre44′
Form
- 19.10away · San Martín de Tucumán2:3
- 10.10Atlético Rafaela4:0
- 04.10away · Agropecuario0:0
- 27.09Tristán Suárez0:1
- 20.09away · Atlético Güemes2:0
- 17.10Atlanta3:1
- 11.10away · Gimnasia Jujuy2:2
- 05.10away · San Martín de Tucumán0:1
- 28.09Atlético Rafaela1:0
- 20.09away · Agropecuario0:1
Head to head
- 06.06.2026Gimnasia y Tiro — CA Ferrocarril Midland1:0
Next matches
- AtlantaCA Ferrocarril Midland31 October · Primera Nacional4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- Gimnasia y TiroQuilmes2 November · Primera Nacional5329181The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 6721121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 6026141The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4232261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
- 4032281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 5628161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 5326211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 5129201The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 6325121The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →