Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Aurinegro
Club Atlético Mitre — Godoy Cruz
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0:3Came true
In short
Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Godoy Cruz to win (38%), came true.
Evenly matched: Club Atlético Mitre 32%, Godoy Cruz 38%, draw 30%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Godoy Cruz are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Godoy Cruz are 61 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Godoy Cruz: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Club Atlético Mitre — Godoy Cruz What is xG? | 1.2–1.3 | |
| Club Atlético Mitre not to lose | 62% | |
| Godoy Cruz not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Match events
- 13′Martín Pino · Godoy Cruz0:1
- 33′Franco Ferrari · Club Atlético Mitre
- 35′Nahuel Brunet · Godoy Cruz
- 35′Maximiliano Romero · Club Atlético Mitre
- 46′Vicente Poggi · Godoy Cruz
- 57′Pablo Minissale · Club Atlético Mitre
- 72′Marcos Machado · Club Atlético Mitre
- 75′Martín Pino · Godoy Cruz0:2
- 86′Juan Morán · Godoy Cruz
- 89′Santiago Martínez · Godoy Cruz0:3
- 91′Brian Mieres · Club Atlético Mitre
Substitutions (10)
- 62′Felipe Gorla ↔ Martín Vázquez · Club Atlético Mitre
- 70′Fabricio Oviedo ↔ Axel Rodríguez · Godoy Cruz
- 70′Gastón Gil Romero ↔ Rodrigo Fernández · Godoy Cruz
- 80′Juan Morán ↔ Nahuel Brunet · Godoy Cruz
- 80′Santiago Rosales ↔ Mateo Maldonado · Club Atlético Mitre
- 80′Gianfranco Lillo ↔ Pablo Minissale · Club Atlético Mitre
- 80′Federico Milo ↔ Vicente Poggi · Godoy Cruz
- 84′Rodrigo González ↔ Oscar Garrido · Club Atlético Mitre
- 84′Juan Zárate ↔ Yonathan Cabral · Club Atlético Mitre
- 84′Santiago Martínez ↔ Benjamín Schamine · Godoy Cruz
Lineups
Club Atlético Mitre
- GKIgnacio Pietrobono
- DFYonathan Cabral84′
- DFPablo Minissale80′
- DFFranco Ferrari
- DFBrian Mieres
- DFMaximiliano Romero
- MFOscar Garrido84′
- MFJuan Alessandroni
- MFMateo Maldonado80′
- MFMartín Vázquez62′
- FWMarcos Machado
Came on (5)
- FWJuan Zárate6′
- FWSantiago Rosales10′
- FWRodrigo González6′
- FWFelipe Gorla28′
- DFGianfranco Lillo10′
Godoy Cruz
- GKJuan Strumia
- DFEsteban Burgos
- DFFrancisco Gerometta
- DFNahuel Brunet80′
- DFDiego Viera
- MFRodrigo Fernández70′
- MFBenjamín Schamine84′
- MFVicente Poggi80′
- MFFelipe Cairus
- FWMartín Pino
- FWAxel Rodríguez70′
Came on (5)
- FWFabricio Oviedo20′
- DFJuan Morán10′
- MFSantiago Martínez6′
- DFFederico Milo10′
- MFGastón Gil Romero20′
Form
- 18.10away · Deportivo Morón2:0
- 11.10Colón0:0
- 03.10away · CA San Miguel2:0
- 27.09San Telmo0:2
- 19.09away · Acassuso0:2
- 19.10Club Atlético Estudiantes6:3
- 13.10away · All Boys0:0
- 05.10Los Andes2:1
- 27.09away · Racing de Córdoba2:2
- 20.09away · Deportivo Morón2:1
Head to head
- 07.06.2026Godoy Cruz — Club Atlético Mitre2:1
Next matches
- Godoy CruzAlmirante Brown31 October · Primera Nacional6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:0.2.5
- Los AndesClub Atlético Mitre31 October · Primera Nacional5030191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 6721121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 6026141The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4232261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
- 4032281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 5628161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 5326211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 5129201The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 6325121The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →