Primera Nacional, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti
Deportivo Maipú — Atlético Güemes
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Deportivo Maipú to win (75%), came true.
Deportivo Maipú are clear favourites: 75% against 8% for the opponent, draw 17%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportivo Maipú are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Deportivo Maipú are 299 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Maipú 0 wins, Atlético Güemes 2, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportivo Maipú — Atlético Güemes What is xG? | 2.1–0.6 | |
| Deportivo Maipú not to lose | 92% | |
| Atlético Güemes not to lose | 25% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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Match events
- 43′Gianfranco Baier · Atlético Güemes
- 45′Brian Orosco · Deportivo Maipú1:0
- 47′Juan Giacone · Deportivo Maipú2:0
- 63′Rodrigo Silisque · Atlético Güemes
- 75′Lisandro Cabrera · Deportivo Maipú3:0
- 91′Santiago Sala · Atlético Güemes3:1
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Santiago Sala ↔ Walter Juárez · Atlético Güemes
- 53′Rodrigo Silisque ↔ Gianluca Pugliese · Atlético Güemes
- 56′Juan De la Reta ↔ Nicolás Fernández · Deportivo Maipú
- 64′Tomás Silva ↔ Matías Viguet · Deportivo Maipú
- 64′Lisandro Cabrera ↔ Juan Giacone · Deportivo Maipú
- 75′Julián Vera ↔ Brian Orosco · Deportivo Maipú
- 75′Mateo Ortale ↔ Lucas Faggioli · Deportivo Maipú
- 75′Lucas Guiñazú ↔ Rodrigo Arnay · Atlético Güemes
- 83′Axel Pinto ↔ Jonas Carranza · Atlético Güemes
- 83′Maximo Cassini ↔ Ciro Leineker · Atlético Güemes
Lineups
Deportivo Maipú
- GKNahuel Galardi
- DFLucas Faggioli75′
- DFNicolás Fernández56′
- DFArón Agüero
- DFSantiago Paulini
- MFEnzo Pérez
- MFMirko Bonfigli
- MFBrian Orosco75′
- FWJuan Giacone64′
- FWFranco Saccone
- FWMatías Viguet64′
Came on (5)
- FWLisandro Cabrera26′
- DFMateo Ortale15′
- FWTomás Silva26′
- MFJulián Vera15′
- DFJuan De la Reta34′
Atlético Güemes
- GKTomas Palleres
- DFFacundo Melillán
- DFAlan Gonzalez
- DFRodrigo Arnay75′
- DFWalter Juárez46′
- MFGianfranco Baier
- MFGianluca Pugliese53′
- MFMilton Gerez
- MFSantiago Farrera
- MFJonas Carranza83′
- FWCiro Leineker83′
Came on (5)
- MFAxel Pinto7′
- MFLucas Guiñazú15′
- MFRodrigo Silisque37′
- FWSantiago Sala44′
- MFMaximo Cassini7′
Form
- 17.10away · Chacarita Juniors0:1
- 11.10San Martín San Juan1:1
- 05.10away · Nueva Chicago1:0
- 27.09Temperley1:0
- 20.09Gimnasia Jujuy1:1
- 18.10Almagro2:1
- 11.10away · Patronato de Parana0:2
- 04.10Colegiales0:1
- 26.09away · Quilmes0:2
- 20.09CA Ferrocarril Midland0:2
Head to head
- 07.06.2026Atlético Güemes — Deportivo Maipú1:0
- 27.07.2025Deportivo Maipú — Atlético Güemes1:1
- 23.03.2025Atlético Güemes — Deportivo Maipú1:1
- 07.09.2024Atlético Güemes — Deportivo Maipú4:0
- 22.04.2024Deportivo Maipú — Atlético Güemes1:1
Next matches
- Tristán SuárezDeportivo Maipú31 October · Primera Nacional5728141The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
- Atlético GüemesTemperley31 October · Primera Nacional2229492The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 6721121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 6026141The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4232261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
- 4032281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 5628161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 5326211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 5129201The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 6325121The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →