Belgian Pro League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 234 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 234 matches 10,000 times. Union St.Gilloise have the best chance to win the title: 44%, Club Brugge 42%. Closest to the drop: RAAL La Louvière (46%).
Race for the title
| Date | Union St.Gilloise | Club Brugge | Sporting Charleroi | St.Truiden | Zulte Waregem | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 August | 34% | 42% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 17 August | 19% | 58% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| 24 August | 21% | 56% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| 31 August | 27% | 44% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| 7 September | 44% | 36% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| 14 September | 57% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 21 September | 65% | 25% | 5% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 28 September | 65% | 26% | 4% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 October | 66% | 25% | 4% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 October | 44% | 41% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 13 October | 44% | 42% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “UCL incl. qual.” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union St.Gilloise | 20 (8) | 76 | 18 | 44%▼22 | 44%▼22 | 76%▼13 | 97%▼1 | — |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 21 (8) | 75 | 9 | 42%▲17 | 42%▲17 | 73%▲10 | 95%▲5 | — |
| 3 | Sporting Charleroi | 21 (8) | 65 | 8 | 7%▲3 | 7%▲3 | 23%▲4 | 66%▲8 | <1% |
| 4 | Gent | 22 (8) | 64 | 12 | 5%▲2 | 5%▲2 | 18%▲5 | 62%▲12 | — |
| 5 | Genk | 12 (8) | 56 | 15 | 1% | 1% | 5% | 28%▲1 | <1% |
| 6 | Anderlecht | 16 (8) | 55 | 7 | 1% | 1% | 4% | 23%▲1 | <1% |
| 7 | Westerlo | 13 (8) | 50 | 11 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 10%▲1 | 1%▼1 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 11 (8) | 49 | 17 | <1%▼1 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼3 | 9%▼12 | 1% |
| 9 | Standard Liège | 11 (8) | 47 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1%▼1 | 5%▼4 | 1% |
| 10 | St.Truiden | 8 (8) | 45 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1%▼1 | 4%▼5 | 3%▲1 |
| 11 | Lommel | 11 (8) | 42 | 14 | — | — | <1% | 2%▲1 | 3%▼7 |
| 12 | Cercle Brugge | 3 (8) | 38 | 16 | — | — | <1% | 1% | 13%▲1 |
| 13 | Royal Antwerp | 7 (8) | 36 | 13 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1%▼1 | 15%▲4 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 6 (8) | 35 | 5 | — | — | — | <1% | 19%▼9 |
| 15 | SK Beveren | 9 (8) | 33 | 1 | — | — | — | <1% | 27%▲11 |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 5 (8) | 33 | 10 | — | — | — | <1% | 27%▼15 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 3 (8) | 29 | 6 | — | — | — | <1% | 44%▲6 |
| 18 | RAAL La Louvière | 4 (8) | 29 | 4 | — | — | — | <1% | 46%▲9 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St.Gilloise | 44 | 32 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Club Brugge | 42 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Sporting Charleroi | 7 | 16 | 23 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Gent | 5 | 13 | 23 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Genk | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Anderlecht | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Westerlo | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Zulte Waregem | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Standard Liège | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| St.Truiden | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Lommel | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cercle Brugge | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | ||||
| Royal Antwerp | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||||
| KV Mechelen | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | |||||
| SK Beveren | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 12 | |||||
| OH Leuven | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | |||||
| Kortrijk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 25 | ||||||
| RAAL La Louvière | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 19 | 27 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Belgian Pro League: matches and table →
Belgian Pro League: power rankings →