Ghana Premier League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 252 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 252 matches 10,000 times. Medeama SC have the best chance to win the title: 53%, Hearts of Oak 20%.
Race for the title
| Date | Medeama SC | Hearts of Oak | Dreams FC | Samartex | Aduana Stars | Asante Kotoko SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 September | 18% | 19% | 17% | 3% | 5% | 7% |
| 14 September | 20% | 37% | 9% | 9% | 1% | 4% |
| 21 September | 26% | 29% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 9% |
| 28 September | 36% | 19% | 1% | 10% | 8% | 3% |
| 5 October | 48% | 16% | 1% | 8% | 9% | 2% |
| 12 October | 52% | 20% | <1% | 5% | 5% | 1% |
| 13 October | 53% | 20% | <1% | 5% | 5% | 1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama SC | 14 (6) | 64 | 16 | 53%▲5 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 11 (6) | 59 | 15 | 20%▲4 |
| 3 | Samartex | 11 (6) | 52 | 6 | 5%▼3 |
| 4 | Aduana Stars | 10 (6) | 51 | 11 | 5%▼4 |
| 5 | Port City | 10 (6) | 49 | 14 | 3%▼1 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 10 (6) | 49 | 9 | 3%▲2 |
| 7 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 7 (6) | 48 | 17 | 3%▲1 |
| 8 | Karela United | 9 (6) | 48 | 12 | 2% |
| 9 | Heart of Lions | 8 (6) | 46 | 13 | 2% |
| 10 | Ashanti Gold | 10 (6) | 46 | 4 | 1%▼1 |
| 11 | Asante Kotoko SC | 8 (6) | 45 | 7 | 1%▼1 |
| 12 | All Blacks | 8 (6) | 45 | 5 | 1% |
| 13 | Vision FC | 6 (6) | 45 | 10 | 1%▼1 |
| 14 | Berekum Chelsea | 7 (6) | 44 | 3 | 1%▲1 |
| 15 | Dreams FC | 2 (6) | 41 | 18 | <1%▼1 |
| 16 | Holy Stars | 9 (6) | 41 | 8 | <1% |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 6 (6) | 35 | 1 | <1% |
| 18 | Debibi | 4 (6) | 34 | 2 | <1% |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medeama SC | 53 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Hearts of Oak | 20 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Samartex | 5 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aduana Stars | 5 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Port City | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Bechem United | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Bibiani Gold Stars | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Karela United | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Heart of Lions | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Ashanti Gold | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Asante Kotoko SC | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| All Blacks | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Vision FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Berekum Chelsea | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| Dreams FC | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | |
| Holy Stars | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 7 | |
| Young Apostles | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 27 | ||||
| Debibi | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 31 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Ghana Premier League: matches and table →
Ghana Premier League: power rankings →