Major League Soccer (MLS), round 23 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
FC Cincinnati — DC United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Cincinnati are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 69%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Cincinnati are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Cincinnati — DC United What is xG? | 2.1–1.4 | |
| FC Cincinnati not to lose | 76% | |
| DC United not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 31% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati goals
- DC United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Atlanta United3:1
- 27.09away · CF Montréal1:3
- 20.09away · Houston Dynamo FC2:2
- 13.09Charlotte FC3:3
- 10.09away · Philadelphia Union0:5
- 11.10away · Inter Miami CF0:4
- 27.09away · Vancouver Whitecaps3:3
- 20.09Charlotte FC1:2
- 13.09Atlanta United0:0
- 10.09Columbus Crew2:1
Head to head
- 01.06.2025FC Cincinnati — DC United1:2
- 13.04.2025DC United — FC Cincinnati0:1
- 04.07.2024DC United — FC Cincinnati2:3
- 10.03.2024FC Cincinnati — DC United0:0
- 25.06.2023DC United — FC Cincinnati3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | -15 | 37 |
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | LA Galaxy | 29 | 9 | -11 | 36 |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 28 | 7 | -9 | 30 |
| 26 | DC United | 27 | 6 | -12 | 30 |
| 27 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | -5 | 29 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →