CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores, playoff · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã)
Fluminense — Palmeiras
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Evenly matched: Fluminense 37%, Palmeiras 33%, draw 30%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Fluminense: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fluminense — Palmeiras What is xG? | 1.2–1.1 | |
| Fluminense not to lose | 67% | |
| Palmeiras not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fluminense
- Fluminense goals
- Palmeiras goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10away · Flamengo0:1
- 09.10Coritiba4:0
- 20.09away · Corinthians3:1
- 16.09away · Club Atlético Platense1:2
- 12.09away · Atlético-MG1:3
- 11.10Corinthians4:1
- 09.10Bahia1:0
- 20.09away · Grêmio0:0
- 17.09away · LDU de Quito2:3
- 13.09São Paulo2:0
Head to head
- 15.08.2026Fluminense — Palmeiras3:2
- 26.02.2026Palmeiras — Fluminense2:1
- 23.11.2025Palmeiras — Fluminense0:0
- 24.07.2025Fluminense — Palmeiras1:2
- 08.12.2024Palmeiras — Fluminense0:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →