La Liga, round 9 · Monday, 19 October, 22:00 MSK

Getafe — Rayo Vallecano

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Model prediction for 19 October

Getafe35%

Draw32%

Rayo Vallecano33%

Model estimate at 17:13 MSK

In short

Evenly matched: Getafe 35%, Rayo Vallecano 33%, draw 32%.

The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.

Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 41%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Getafe — Rayo Vallecano What is xG?		1.0–1.0
Getafe not to lose		67%
Rayo Vallecano not to lose		65%
No draw		68%
Both teams to score: yes		41%
Both teams to score: no		59%
Total over 2.5		31%
Total under 2.5		69%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Getafe
Getafe goals
Rayo Vallecano goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Getafe

10.10away · Barcelona0:3
20.09Málaga1:0
17.09away · Real Betis0:1
13.09Deportivo A Coruña1:1
07.09Celta Vigo1:1

Rayo Vallecano

19.09away · Osasuna1:1
15.09Espanyol2:1
12.09away · Real Madrid1:4
05.09Racing Santander3:2
31.08away · Barcelona2:5

Head to head

03.05.2026Getafe — Rayo Vallecano0:2
02.01.2026Rayo Vallecano — Getafe1:1
02.05.2025Rayo Vallecano — Getafe1:0
24.08.2024Getafe — Rayo Vallecano0:0
13.04.2024Rayo Vallecano — Getafe0:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11–11	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11–16	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4–10	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	13–23	-10	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →