Ligue 1, round 9 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Lille — Lens
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lille are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lille — Lens What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Lille not to lose | 69% | |
| Lens not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lille
- Lille goals
- Lens goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Sporting CP0:2
- 09.10Lyon2:1
- 18.09away · Monaco1:2
- 13.09away · Le Mans2:2
- 10.09away · Slavia Prague3:2
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Lille — Lens3:0
- 20.09.2025Lens — Lille3:0
- 30.03.2025Lille — Lens1:0
- 26.10.2024Lens — Lille0:2
- 29.03.2024Lille — Lens2:1
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- Le HavreParis Saint-Germainpreliminary817752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →