Paraguayan Primera Division · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Estadio Arsenio Erico
Nacional (PAR) — Recoleta
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Nacional (PAR) to win (64%), came true.
Nacional (PAR) are clear favourites: 64% against 13% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nacional (PAR) are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nacional (PAR) — Recoleta What is xG? | 2.0–0.9 | |
| Nacional (PAR) not to lose | 87% | |
| Recoleta not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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- Handicap Nacional (PAR)
- Nacional (PAR) goals
- Recoleta goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 07.10away · Olimpia1:1
- 26.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1
- 19.092 de Mayo3:0
- 14.09away · Rubio Ñú1:0
- 08.09away · Cerro Porteño0:1
- 05.10Libertad1:2
- 28.09away · Sportivo San Lorenzo0:0
- 21.09away · Luqueño0:1
- 13.09Sportivo Trinidense1:3
- 07.09away · Guaraní0:2
Head to head
- 04.08.2026Recoleta — Nacional (PAR)3:2
- 24.04.2026Nacional (PAR) — Recoleta2:1
- 06.03.2026Nacional (PAR) — Recoleta1:1
- 27.02.2026Recoleta — Nacional (PAR)2:2
- 28.11.2025Recoleta — Nacional (PAR)0:0
Next matches
- RecoletaRubio Ñú17 October · Paraguayan Primera4827251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- GuaraníNacional (PAR)17 October · Paraguayan Primera373231XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →