Turkish Super Lig: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 243 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 243 matches 10,000 times. Galatasaray have the best chance to win the title: 41%, Fenerbahçe 22%. Closest to the drop: Eyüpspor (84%).
Race for the title
| Date | Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe | Beşiktaş | Başakşehir | Trabzonspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 August | 24% | 20% | 11% | 16% | 7% | 6% |
| 24 August | 41% | 19% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 4% |
| 31 August | 46% | 23% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 1% |
| 7 September | 50% | 12% | 20% | 4% | 7% | <1% |
| 14 September | 52% | 12% | 24% | 1% | 4% | <1% |
| 21 September | 36% | 25% | 20% | 1% | 9% | <1% |
| 28 September | 37% | 23% | 20% | 2% | 9% | <1% |
| 5 October | 36% | 23% | 22% | 2% | 9% | — |
| 12 October | 40% | 22% | 19% | 1% | 11% | <1% |
| 13 October | 41% | 22% | 19% | 1% | 12% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “UCL incl. qual.” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 16 (7) | 70 | 17 | 41%▲5 | 41%▲5 | 64%▲6 | 87%▲5 | <1% |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 13 (7) | 65 | 12 | 22%▼1 | 22%▼1 | 44%▼1 | 75%▲1 | <1% |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 15 (7) | 64 | 13 | 19%▼3 | 19%▼3 | 40%▼2 | 73%▲2 | <1% |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 13 (7) | 61 | 18 | 12%▲3 | 12%▲3 | 29%▲8 | 62%▲11 | <1% |
| 5 | Amed Sportif | 14 (7) | 55 | 9 | 4% | 4% | 11%▼1 | 35%▲2 | 1%▼1 |
| 6 | Başakşehir | 8 (7) | 51 | 14 | 1%▼1 | 1%▼1 | 4%▼2 | 18%▼2 | 3%▼2 |
| 7 | Alanyaspor | 12 (7) | 48 | 2 | <1%▼2 | <1%▼2 | 1%▼5 | 9%▼11 | 4%▲1 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 12 (7) | 47 | 15 | <1%▼1 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼1 | 7%▼2 | 5% |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 10 (7) | 46 | 16 | <1%▼1 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼2 | 7%▼4 | 6% |
| 10 | Çorum FK | 10 (7) | 46 | 10 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8%▲3 | 8%▼9 |
| 11 | Rizespor | 10 (7) | 46 | 5 | <1%▼1 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼3 | 7%▼8 | 7%▲2 |
| 12 | Göztepe | 6 (7) | 44 | 4 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6%▲2 | 11%▼11 |
| 13 | Konyaspor | 5 (7) | 40 | 11 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 21% |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 8 (7) | 37 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%▼2 | 33%▲14 |
| 15 | Samsunspor | 4 (7) | 36 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 36%▲5 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği | 8 (7) | 36 | 8 | — | — | <1% | <1%▼1 | 39%▼1 |
| 17 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 (7) | 35 | 7 | — | — | <1% | <1% | 43%▼10 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 3 (7) | 25 | 3 | — | — | — | <1% | 84%▲12 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 41 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Fenerbahçe | 22 | 22 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Beşiktaş | 19 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Trabzonspor | 12 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Amed Sportif | 4 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Başakşehir | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Alanyaspor | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Kocaelispor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Kasımpaşa | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Çorum FK | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Rizespor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Göztepe | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Konyaspor | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 4 | |||
| Gaziantep FK | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 7 | |||
| Samsunspor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 10 | |||
| Gençlerbirliği | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 9 | ||||
| Erzurumspor FK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 11 | ||||
| Eyüpspor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 54 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.