Swiss Super League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 72 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 72 matches 10,000 times. Lugano have the best chance to be first before the split: 78%, Young Boys 16%.
Race for first place
| Date | Lugano | Young Boys | Sion | Thun | St. Gallen | Basel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 July | 13% | 22% | 9% | 18% | 15% | 7% |
| 3 August | 17% | 42% | 14% | 5% | 12% | 4% |
| 10 August | 27% | 33% | 15% | 3% | 11% | 6% |
| 17 August | 27% | 33% | 15% | 2% | 11% | 6% |
| 24 August | 28% | 33% | 15% | 2% | 11% | 6% |
| 31 August | 37% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 9% | 7% |
| 7 September | 57% | 18% | 17% | 1% | 5% | 1% |
| 14 September | 50% | 18% | 26% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 21 September | 67% | 16% | 15% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 28 September | 68% | 16% | 15% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 5 October | 66% | 16% | 17% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 79% | 15% | 5% | — | 1% | — |
| 13 October | 78% | 16% | 6% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 28 (10) | 51 | 11 | 78%▲12 | >99% |
| 2 | Young Boys | 22 (10) | 44 | 8 | 16% | 99%▲1 |
| 3 | Sion | 19 (10) | 41 | 12 | 6%▼11 | 97%▼2 |
| 4 | St. Gallen | 16 (10) | 34 | 4 | 1% | 81%▲8 |
| 5 | Servette | 13 (10) | 31 | 7 | <1% | 59%▲17 |
| 6 | Basel | 13 (10) | 29 | 10 | <1% | 44%▼18 |
| 7 | Luzern | 12 (10) | 29 | 9 | <1% | 45%▼11 |
| 8 | FC Zürich | 14 (10) | 27 | 3 | <1% | 29%▲8 |
| 9 | Thun | 10 (10) | 25 | 2 | <1% | 18%▼10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 9 (10) | 24 | 6 | <1% | 20%▲9 |
| 11 | Grasshopper | 8 (10) | 20 | 5 | — | 5%▼3 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 6 (10) | 18 | 1 | — | 1%▼2 |
Chance of every place
Show the 12 × 12 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 78 | 17 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| Young Boys | 16 | 46 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Sion | 6 | 27 | 39 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| St. Gallen | 1 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Servette | 2 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Basel | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| Luzern | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| FC Zürich | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| Thun | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 8 | ||
| FC Vaduz | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 8 | ||
| Grasshopper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 27 | 27 | |||
| Lausanne | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 49 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Swiss Super League: matches and table →
Swiss Super League: power rankings →