Super League Greece: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 140 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 140 matches 10,000 times. AEK Athens have the best chance to be first before the split: 39%, Panathinaikos 33%.
Race for first place
| Date | AEK Athens | Panathinaikos | PAOK Thessaloniki | Olympiacos | Aris Thessaloniki | Atromitos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 August | 30% | 10% | 24% | 24% | 5% | 2% |
| 31 August | 20% | 10% | 32% | 30% | 4% | 1% |
| 7 September | 36% | 19% | 17% | 25% | 1% | <1% |
| 14 September | 31% | 34% | 23% | 11% | 1% | <1% |
| 21 September | 27% | 34% | 28% | 11% | <1% | — |
| 28 September | 28% | 34% | 27% | 10% | <1% | — |
| 5 October | 26% | 34% | 28% | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 32% | 27% | 27% | 13% | <1% | — |
| 13 October | 39% | 33% | 10% | 16% | 1% | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens | 14 (6) | 54 | 9 | 39%▲13 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 15 (6) | 54 | 14 | 33%▼1 |
| 3 | Olympiacos | 13 (6) | 51 | 11 | 16%▲5 |
| 4 | PAOK Thessaloniki | 12 (6) | 48 | 13 | 10%▼18 |
| 5 | Aris Thessaloniki | 10 (6) | 37 | 8 | 1%▲1 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 10 (6) | 35 | 7 | <1% |
| 7 | Kifisia FC | 8 (6) | 33 | 10 | <1% |
| 8 | Kalamata | 7 (6) | 31 | 4 | <1% |
| 9 | Iraklis | 9 (6) | 31 | 5 | <1% |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 9 (6) | 30 | 2 | <1% |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 5 (6) | 27 | 1 | <1% |
| 12 | Atromitos | 2 (6) | 26 | 3 | — |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 1 (6) | 25 | 12 | <1% |
| 14 | NFC Volos | 2 (6) | 22 | 6 | — |
Chance of every place
Show the 14 × 14 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | 39 | 26 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Panathinaikos | 33 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Olympiacos | 16 | 25 | 27 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| PAOK Thessaloniki | 10 | 17 | 22 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Aris Thessaloniki | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| OFI Crete | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Kifisia FC | 1 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Kalamata | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Iraklis | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Panetolikos | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | ||
| Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | |||
| Atromitos | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | |||
| Levadiakos | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 19 | |||
| NFC Volos | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 19 | 35 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Greek Super League: matches and table →
Greek Super League: power rankings →