Ligue 1: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 252 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 252 matches 10,000 times. Paris Saint-Germain have the best chance to win the title: 50%, Monaco 12%. Closest to the drop: Troyes (49%).
Race for the title
| Date | Paris Saint-Germain | Lens | Monaco | Lyon | Paris FC | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 August | 31% | 19% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 11% |
| 31 August | 33% | 16% | 11% | 5% | 7% | 8% |
| 7 September | 26% | 10% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 5% |
| 14 September | 31% | 7% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 3% |
| 21 September | 41% | 4% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 1% |
| 28 September | 42% | 4% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 1% |
| 5 October | 42% | 4% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 1% |
| 12 October | 51% | 5% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 1% |
| 13 October | 50% | 5% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “UCL incl. qual.” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 11 (6) | 69 | 18 | 50%▲8 | 80%▲4 | 87%▲3 | 94%▲1 | — | <1% |
| 2 | Monaco | 14 (6) | 59 | 17 | 12%▼4 | 42%▼6 | 54%▼7 | 72%▼5 | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | Lyon | 11 (6) | 58 | 15 | 11%▼2 | 39%▼5 | 51%▼5 | 70%▼4 | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | Paris FC | 11 (6) | 56 | 9 | 7%▼3 | 31%▼5 | 43%▼5 | 63%▼5 | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | Lille | 13 (6) | 55 | 7 | 5%▲1 | 24%▲2 | 34%▲2 | 54%▲2 | 1% | 1% |
| 6 | Lens | 7 (6) | 53 | 13 | 5%▲1 | 22%▲3 | 32%▲4 | 51%▲4 | 2% | 1%▼1 |
| 7 | Rennes | 13 (6) | 51 | 5 | 3% | 17%▲3 | 26%▲5 | 43%▲6 | 2%▼1 | 2%▼1 |
| 8 | Brest | 8 (6) | 48 | 8 | 2%▲1 | 11%▲5 | 17%▲7 | 32%▲10 | 3%▼3 | 3%▼4 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 6 (6) | 48 | 14 | 2%▲1 | 9%▲1 | 15%▲2 | 29%▲3 | 3%▼2 | 4%▼2 |
| 10 | Marseille | 6 (6) | 47 | 16 | 1% | 9%▲2 | 14%▲3 | 27%▲5 | 4%▼2 | 5%▼3 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 7 (6) | 46 | 12 | 1%▼1 | 7%▼5 | 12%▼7 | 24%▼11 | 4%▲1 | 5%▲1 |
| 12 | Lorient | 8 (6) | 45 | 4 | 1% | 4% | 7% | 17%▲2 | 5%▼2 | 6%▼4 |
| 13 | Le Mans | 6 (6) | 38 | 11 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6%▼1 | 11% | 20%▼1 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 6 (6) | 37 | 6 | <1% | 1%▼1 | 2%▼1 | 5%▼3 | 13%▲3 | 23%▲5 |
| 15 | Nice | 8 (6) | 37 | 1 | <1% | 1%▲1 | 2%▲2 | 5%▲3 | 12%▼1 | 23%▼11 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 2 (6) | 35 | 10 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 1%▼1 | 4%▼1 | 13%▲1 | 28%▲1 |
| 17 | Angers | 7 (6) | 35 | 2 | <1% | <1%▼1 | <1%▼2 | 2%▼4 | 14%▲4 | 29%▲11 |
| 18 | Troyes | 4 (6) | 31 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%▼1 | 14%▲2 | 49%▲10 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 50 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Monaco | 12 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Lyon | 11 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Paris FC | 7 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Lille | 5 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Lens | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rennes | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Brest | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Toulouse | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Marseille | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Strasbourg | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Lorient | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Le Mans | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | ||
| Auxerre | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | ||
| Nice | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | |||
| Le Havre | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | |||
| Angers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 14 | ||||
| Troyes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 31 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.