Bundesliga, round 6 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 64% against 15% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg What is xG? | 2.1–1.0 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 85% | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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- Handicap Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen goals
- Freiburg goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10away · Mainz 054:3
- 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
- 16.09NK Celje2:0
- 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
- 05.09Union Berlin4:0
- 11.10Schalke 042:1
- 19.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- 12.09Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- 05.09away · Paderborn1:0
- 30.08Werder Bremen4:1
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Freiburg — Bayer Leverkusen3:3
- 26.10.2025Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg2:0
- 04.05.2025Freiburg — Bayer Leverkusen2:2
- 21.12.2024Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg5:1
- 17.03.2024Freiburg — Bayer Leverkusen2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 3428382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →