Brazilian Serie A, round 33 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Coritiba — Vitória
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Coritiba are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Coritiba — Vitória What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Coritiba not to lose | 70% | |
| Vitória not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Coritiba
- Coritiba goals
- Vitória goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 12.10Botafogo1:1
- 09.10away · Fluminense0:4
- 20.09away · Vasco da Gama0:5
- 12.09Athletico Paranaense3:3
- 06.09Mirassol1:2
- 11.10away · São Paulo1:2
- 08.10Chapecoense4:0
- 20.09Cruzeiro1:3
- 13.09away · Mirassol2:2
- 08.09Grêmio1:0
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Vitória — Coritiba4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- Atlético-MGCruzeiropreliminary4329291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Vasco da GamaFlamengopreliminary2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- GrêmioAthletico Paranaensepreliminary3428372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →