Major League Soccer (MLS), round 30 · Monday, 19 October, MSK
FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew
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In short
FC Cincinnati are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew What is xG? | 1.7–1.5 | |
| FC Cincinnati not to lose | 69% | |
| Columbus Crew not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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- Handicap FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati goals
- Columbus Crew goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Atlanta United3:1
- 27.09away · CF Montréal1:3
- 20.09away · Houston Dynamo FC2:2
- 13.09Charlotte FC3:3
- 10.09away · Philadelphia Union0:5
- 11.10away · Orlando City2:3
- 28.09Inter Miami CF2:1
- 20.09away · CF Montréal2:0
- 17.09Orlando City2:1
- 13.09Red Bull New York0:1
Head to head
- 26.07.2026Columbus Crew — FC Cincinnati2:1
- 09.11.2025FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew2:1
- 03.11.2025Columbus Crew — FC Cincinnati4:0
- 28.10.2025FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew1:0
- 13.07.2025FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew2:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | -15 | 37 |
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | LA Galaxy | 29 | 9 | -11 | 36 |
| 26 | DC United | 27 | 6 | -12 | 30 |
| 27 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | -5 | 29 |
| 28 | Atlanta United | 28 | 7 | -15 | 27 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →