Bundesliga, round 7 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Freiburg — Bayern München
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayern München are clear favourites: 69% against 11% for the opponent, draw 20%.
3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayern München are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Freiburg — Bayern München What is xG? | 1.1–2.4 | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 31% | |
| Bayern München not to lose | 89% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Freiburg
- Freiburg goals
- Bayern München goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Schalke 042:1
- 19.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- 12.09Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- 05.09away · Paderborn1:0
- 30.08Werder Bremen4:1
- 10.10away · Augsburg2:2
- 18.09Union Berlin7:0
- 13.09away · Elversberg2:1
- 10.09Bodø/Glimt5:0
- 05.09away · Schalke 040:0
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Freiburg — Bayern München2:3
- 22.11.2025Bayern München — Freiburg6:2
- 25.01.2025Freiburg — Bayern München1:2
- 01.09.2024Bayern München — Freiburg2:0
- 01.03.2024Freiburg — Bayern München2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- HoffenheimBayer Leverkusenpreliminary2426502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →