Major League Soccer (MLS): 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 90 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 90 matches 10,000 times. Nashville SC have the best chance to win the regular season: 99%, Vancouver Whitecaps 1%.
Race for first place
| Date | Nashville SC | Vancouver Whitecaps | Los Angeles FC | Inter Miami CF | San Jose Earthquakes | San Diego FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 February | 4% | 9% | 17% | 12% | 2% | 14% |
| 2 March | 4% | 10% | 28% | 20% | 1% | 12% |
| 9 March | 4% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 2% | 17% |
| 16 March | 6% | 38% | 18% | 13% | <1% | 10% |
| 23 March | 12% | 20% | 18% | 29% | 2% | 6% |
| 30 March | 12% | 20% | 17% | 29% | 2% | 6% |
| 6 April | 11% | 16% | 36% | 15% | 5% | 2% |
| 13 April | 20% | 31% | 19% | 8% | 8% | 1% |
| 20 April | 25% | 30% | 3% | 8% | 18% | <1% |
| 27 April | 27% | 26% | 3% | 6% | 27% | — |
| 4 May | 31% | 27% | 3% | 2% | 26% | — |
| 11 May | 22% | 37% | 1% | 6% | 24% | — |
| 18 May | 46% | 31% | <1% | 11% | 7% | — |
| 25 May | 44% | 35% | <1% | 10% | 9% | — |
| 1 June | 42% | 36% | <1% | 10% | 9% | — |
| 8 June | 43% | 36% | <1% | 9% | 10% | — |
| 15 June | 43% | 35% | <1% | 10% | 10% | — |
| 22 June | 43% | 35% | <1% | 10% | 9% | — |
| 29 June | 43% | 35% | <1% | 10% | 10% | — |
| 6 July | 43% | 37% | <1% | 9% | 9% | — |
| 13 July | 44% | 36% | <1% | 9% | 9% | — |
| 20 July | 42% | 39% | <1% | 9% | 8% | <1% |
| 27 July | 44% | 26% | 2% | 25% | 2% | — |
| 3 August | 45% | 27% | 4% | 22% | 1% | — |
| 10 August | 46% | 26% | 3% | 23% | 1% | — |
| 17 August | 51% | 33% | 1% | 14% | <1% | <1% |
| 24 August | 70% | 25% | <1% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 31 August | 73% | 23% | <1% | 4% | <1% | — |
| 7 September | 85% | 12% | <1% | 3% | — | — |
| 14 September | 85% | 12% | — | 3% | <1% | — |
| 21 September | 87% | 12% | — | <1% | — | — |
| 28 September | 96% | 4% | — | <1% | <1% | — |
| 5 October | 90% | 10% | — | <1% | <1% | — |
| 12 October | 99% | 1% | — | <1% | — | — |
| 13 October | 99% | 1% | — | <1% | — | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 63 (28) | 74 | 26 | 99%▲9 | >99% |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 51 (28) | 63 | 16 | 1%▼9 | >99% |
| 3 | Inter Miami CF | 49 (28) | 60 | 25 | <1% | >99% |
| 4 | St. Louis City | 50 (28) | 59 | 8 | <1% | >99% |
| 5 | Chicago Fire FC | 48 (28) | 58 | 23 | <1% | >99% |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 47 (28) | 57 | 29 | — | >99% |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 46 (28) | 55 | 7 | — | >99% |
| 8 | Charlotte FC | 46 (28) | 54 | 5 | — | >99% |
| 9 | New England Revolution | 46 (28) | 54 | 6 | — | >99% |
| 10 | Houston Dynamo FC | 45 (28) | 53 | 9 | — | >99%▲1 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union | 42 (28) | 51 | 4 | — | >99%▲1 |
| 12 | Los Angeles FC | 42 (29) | 51 | 30 | — | >99%▲2 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders FC | 41 (28) | 49 | 3 | — | 97%▲15 |
| 14 | FC Cincinnati | 36 (27) | 46 | 15 | — | 82%▲11 |
| 15 | Colorado Rapids | 37 (28) | 44 | 1 | — | 66%▲6 |
| 16 | Orlando City | 37 (28) | 44 | 12 | — | 66%▲11 |
| 17 | Red Bull New York | 36 (28) | 43 | 13 | — | 57%▲18 |
| 18 | LA Galaxy | 36 (29) | 43 | 28 | — | 44%▼2 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 33 (28) | 42 | 22 | — | 48%▼17 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 33 (28) | 41 | 24 | — | 32%▼1 |
| 21 | Real Salt Lake | 32 (28) | 41 | 27 | — | 27%▼4 |
| 22 | San Diego FC | 32 (28) | 40 | 11 | — | 21%▼11 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 32 (28) | 40 | 19 | — | 20%▲3 |
| 24 | DC United | 30 (27) | 39 | 20 | — | 18%▼12 |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 30 (28) | 39 | 21 | — | 9%▼3 |
| 26 | Columbus Crew | 29 (28) | 37 | 10 | — | 8%▼12 |
| 27 | Austin FC | 31 (28) | 37 | 17 | — | 4%▼2 |
| 28 | Atlanta United | 27 (28) | 34 | 18 | — | 1%▼4 |
| 29 | CF Montréal | 24 (28) | 30 | 2 | — | <1% |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 22 (28) | 27 | 14 | — | — |
Chance of every place
Show the 30 × 30 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 99 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1 | 59 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inter Miami CF | 16 | 28 | 19 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| St. Louis City | 14 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Chicago Fire FC | 5 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| FC Dallas | 3 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Charlotte FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| New England Revolution | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Houston Dynamo FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Philadelphia Union | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Los Angeles FC | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Seattle Sounders FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| FC Cincinnati | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Colorado Rapids | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Orlando City | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Red Bull New York | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| LA Galaxy | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| New York City FC | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Portland Timbers | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Real Salt Lake | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| San Diego FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Toronto FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| DC United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Minnesota United | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Columbus Crew | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| Austin FC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 14 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
| Atlanta United | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 18 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CF Montréal | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 52 | 22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sporting Kansas City | 1 | 4 | 21 | 74 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.