Nigeria NPFL: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 300 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 300 matches 10,000 times. Rivers United FC have the best chance to win the title: 57%, Enugu Rangers 23%.
Race for the title
| Date | Rivers United FC | Enugu Rangers | Barau | Kano Pillars | Kun Khalifat | Ikorodu City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 August | 15% | 12% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 6% |
| 7 September | 19% | 11% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 9% |
| 14 September | 19% | 12% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 7% |
| 21 September | 23% | 24% | 17% | 11% | 1% | 5% |
| 28 September | 47% | 10% | 20% | 3% | <1% | 6% |
| 5 October | 56% | 20% | 8% | 1% | <1% | 4% |
| 12 October | 57% | 23% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 5% |
| 13 October | 57% | 23% | 5% | <1% | <1% | 5% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United FC | 16 (8) | 74 | 18 | 57%▲1 |
| 2 | Enugu Rangers | 17 (8) | 69 | 14 | 23%▲3 |
| 3 | Barau | 13 (8) | 62 | 17 | 5%▼3 |
| 4 | Ikorodu City | 12 (8) | 61 | 20 | 5%▲1 |
| 5 | Plateau United | 14 (8) | 61 | 9 | 5%▲2 |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 12 (8) | 57 | 12 | 2%▼2 |
| 7 | Nasarawa United | 11 (8) | 55 | 16 | 1% |
| 8 | Katsina United | 12 (8) | 52 | 8 | <1% |
| 9 | Kwara United | 10 (8) | 51 | 11 | <1%▼1 |
| 10 | Sporting Lagos | 12 (8) | 51 | 7 | <1% |
| 11 | Kano Pillars | 11 (8) | 50 | 3 | <1%▼1 |
| 12 | Doma United | 13 (8) | 50 | 5 | <1%▼1 |
| 13 | Ranchers Bees | 8 (8) | 49 | 19 | <1% |
| 14 | Abia Warriors | 9 (8) | 49 | 15 | <1% |
| 15 | Warri Wolves FC | 10 (8) | 48 | 10 | <1% |
| 16 | Niger Tornadoes | 9 (8) | 47 | 6 | <1% |
| 17 | Kun Khalifat | 8 (8) | 46 | 13 | <1% |
| 18 | Enyimba | 7 (8) | 44 | 2 | <1% |
| 19 | Shooting Stars | 8 (8) | 43 | 4 | <1% |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 5 (8) | 32 | 1 | — |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rivers United FC | 57 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Enugu Rangers | 23 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Barau | 5 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Ikorodu City | 5 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Plateau United | 5 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Bendel Insurance | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nasarawa United | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Katsina United | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Kwara United | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sporting Lagos | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Kano Pillars | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Doma United | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| Ranchers Bees | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
| Abia Warriors | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |
| Warri Wolves FC | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | ||
| Niger Tornadoes | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Kun Khalifat | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | ||
| Enyimba | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 8 | ||
| Shooting Stars | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 9 | |||
| Inter Lagos | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 60 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Nigeria NPFL: matches and table →
Nigeria NPFL: power rankings →