Saudi Pro League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 235 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 235 matches 10,000 times. Al Hilal have the best chance to win the title: 60%, Al Qadsiah 23%. Closest to the drop: Abha (55%).
Race for the title
| Date | Al Hilal | Al Nassr FC | Al Qadsiah | Al Ahli | Al Ittihad | Al-Ettifaq |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 August | 27% | 30% | 21% | 16% | 1% | 2% |
| 24 August | 35% | 31% | 14% | 17% | 1% | 2% |
| 31 August | 41% | 35% | 16% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 September | 61% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 14 September | 62% | 11% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 21 September | 62% | 11% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 28 September | 62% | 10% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 5 October | 63% | 10% | 19% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 12 October | 60% | 12% | 22% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 13 October | 60% | 11% | 23% | 6% | 1% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 21 (8) | 82 | 17 | 60%▼3 | — |
| 2 | Al Qadsiah | 19 (8) | 75 | 18 | 23%▲4 | — |
| 3 | Al Nassr FC | 19 (8) | 72 | 8 | 11%▲1 | — |
| 4 | Al Ahli | 15 (8) | 68 | 16 | 6%▲1 | — |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 17 (8) | 61 | 15 | 1%▼1 | <1% |
| 6 | Neom SC | 16 (8) | 55 | 10 | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 (8) | 46 | 3 | <1% | 2% |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 (8) | 45 | 13 | <1% | 3%▲1 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 12 (8) | 44 | 11 | — | 4%▲2 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 7 (8) | 39 | 7 | — | 12%▼11 |
| 11 | Al Hazem | 9 (8) | 35 | 1 | — | 21%▼2 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 9 (8) | 34 | 6 | — | 27%▼5 |
| 13 | Al Khaleej | 6 (8) | 34 | 9 | — | 29%▼8 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 7 (8) | 33 | 2 | — | 30%▲4 |
| 15 | Al-Taawoun | 3 (8) | 33 | 5 | — | 34%▲11 |
| 16 | Al-Faisaly | 3 (7) | 31 | 14 | — | 40%▲1 |
| 17 | Al Fateh FC | 3 (8) | 31 | 12 | — | 42%▲9 |
| 18 | Abha | 2 (7) | 28 | 4 | — | 55%▼2 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal | 60 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Al Qadsiah | 23 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Al Nassr FC | 11 | 23 | 27 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Al Ahli | 6 | 16 | 24 | 27 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Al Ittihad | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 30 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Neom SC | 1 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 27 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Al-Ettifaq | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Al Diriyah | 1 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Al Kholood | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Al Shabab | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| Al Hazem | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | |||||
| Al Riyadh | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | |||||
| Al Khaleej | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | |||||
| Al-Fayha | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | |||||
| Al-Taawoun | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | |||||
| Al-Faisaly | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||||
| Al Fateh FC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 15 | |||||
| Abha | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 26 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Saudi Pro League: matches and table →
Saudi Pro League: power rankings →