Scottish Premiership: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 150 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 150 matches 10,000 times. Celtic have the best chance to be first before the split: 63%, Rangers 25%.
Race for first place
| Date | Celtic | Rangers | Motherwell | Heart of Midlothian | Hibernian | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 August | 34% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 3% |
| 10 August | 52% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 1% |
| 17 August | 52% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 1% |
| 24 August | 52% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 1% |
| 31 August | 55% | 13% | 6% | 14% | 9% | <1% |
| 7 September | 59% | 18% | 4% | 15% | 3% | <1% |
| 14 September | 64% | 17% | 3% | 13% | 3% | <1% |
| 21 September | 58% | 33% | 1% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| 28 September | 58% | 34% | 1% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| 5 October | 57% | 33% | 1% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 63% | 26% | <1% | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 October | 63% | 25% | <1% | 11% | <1% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 21 (8) | 73 | 12 | 63%▲6 | >99% |
| 2 | Rangers | 19 (8) | 67 | 11 | 25%▼8 | 99% |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 16 (8) | 60 | 4 | 11%▲4 | 97%▲6 |
| 4 | Dundee FC | 13 (8) | 45 | 7 | <1% | 57%▲12 |
| 5 | Motherwell | 8 (8) | 43 | 8 | <1%▼1 | 48%▼8 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 11 (8) | 43 | 2 | <1% | 46%▲13 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 7 (8) | 42 | 6 | <1%▼1 | 46%▼10 |
| 8 | St. Johnstone | 11 (8) | 41 | 1 | <1% | 38%▲8 |
| 9 | St. Mirren | 10 (8) | 37 | 5 | <1% | 21%▼13 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 8 (8) | 37 | 10 | <1% | 21%▼6 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 6 (8) | 36 | 9 | <1% | 19%▼3 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 (8) | 30 | 3 | — | 7%▲1 |
Chance of every place
Show the 12 × 12 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 63 | 25 | 9 | 2 | ||||||||
| Rangers | 25 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Heart of Midlothian | 11 | 26 | 39 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Dundee FC | 2 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| Motherwell | 1 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 4 | |
| Dundee United | 1 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | |
| Hibernian | 1 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | |
| St. Johnstone | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 5 | |
| St. Mirren | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 11 | ||
| Aberdeen | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 12 | ||
| Falkirk | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 16 | ||
| Kilmarnock | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 43 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Scottish Premiership: matches and table →
Scottish Premiership: power rankings →