South African Premiership: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 179 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 179 matches 10,000 times. Orlando Pirates have the best chance to win the title: 62%, Mamelodi Sundowns FC 35%. Closest to the drop: Marumo Gallants (25%).
Race for the title
| Date | Orlando Pirates | Mamelodi Sundowns FC | Kaizer Chiefs | AmaZulu FC | Sekhukhune United |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 August | 59% | 28% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
| 10 August | 59% | 28% | 5% | 2% | 2% |
| 17 August | 55% | 33% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 24 August | 58% | 30% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 31 August | 52% | 40% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 September | 57% | 37% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 14 September | 61% | 35% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 21 September | 64% | 33% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 28 September | 65% | 32% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 5 October | 63% | 35% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 64% | 33% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 13 October | 62% | 35% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “CAF cups” counts “CAF CL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | CAF CL | CAF cups | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando Pirates | 22 (8) | 71 | 13 | 62%▼1 | 94%▲1 | 99%▲1 | — | — |
| 2 | Mamelodi Sundowns FC | 23 (9) | 67 | 15 | 35% | 87%▲1 | 97% | — | — |
| 3 | AmaZulu FC | 19 (8) | 54 | 16 | 1% | 10%▲3 | 47%▲12 | — | — |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs | 14 (8) | 52 | 11 | 1%▼1 | 6%▼5 | 37%▼9 | <1% | — |
| 5 | Sekhukhune United | 11 (7) | 44 | 14 | <1% | 1%▼1 | 9%▼3 | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | Stellenbosch FC | 10 (8) | 40 | 4 | — | <1% | 3%▼1 | 1%▼1 | <1%▼1 |
| 7 | Milford FC | 12 (8) | 40 | 9 | — | <1% | 3% | 1% | <1%▼1 |
| 8 | Lamontville Golden Arrows | 8 (7) | 39 | 8 | — | <1% | 2% | 1% | 1%▲1 |
| 9 | Polokwane City | 7 (7) | 35 | 1 | — | <1% | 1% | 4%▼1 | 2% |
| 10 | Durban City | 7 (8) | 35 | 6 | — | <1% | <1%▼1 | 5%▲2 | 2%▲1 |
| 11 | Chippa United | 8 (7) | 35 | 7 | — | <1% | 1% | 5%▼1 | 3% |
| 12 | Siwelele | 3 (7) | 31 | 12 | — | <1% | <1% | 11%▼1 | 10% |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 6 (8) | 30 | 5 | — | — | <1% | 12% | 10% |
| 14 | Kruger United | 4 (7) | 26 | 2 | — | — | <1% | 19%▼1 | 22%▼1 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 3 (8) | 26 | 3 | — | — | — | 19%▲2 | 24%▲1 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 2 (7) | 25 | 10 | — | — | <1% | 21%▲1 | 25%▼2 |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pirates | 62 | 32 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Mamelodi Sundowns FC | 35 | 52 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| AmaZulu FC | 1 | 9 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Kaizer Chiefs | 1 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Sekhukhune United | 1 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Stellenbosch FC | 3 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Milford FC | 3 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Lamontville Golden Arrows | 2 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Polokwane City | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Durban City | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| Chippa United | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Siwelele | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | |||
| TS Galaxy | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | |||
| Kruger United | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 22 | ||||
| Richards Bay | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 24 | |||||
| Marumo Gallants | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 25 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
SA Premiership: matches and table →
SA Premiership: power rankings →