Liga MX: matchday 12 predictions
17–19 October · 9 matches · season 2026
Liga MX matchday 12: 9 matches, 17–19 October. The model expects 3.0 goals per match on average. Its most likely outcome is a home win in 8 matches, an away win in 1. In matchday 11 the most likely outcome came true in 2 of 9 matches.
The round at a glance
- Biggest favouriteToluca — Atlético de San LuisToluca 70% to win; most likely score 2:1
- Closest matchSantos Laguna — Querétaro FC38% v 35%, draw 27%
- Most goals expectedCruz Azul — FC Juárez3.2 goals on average; over 2.5: 63%
- Possible upsetChivas — TigresTigres 22% to win: the best underdog chance of the round
- Top-of-the-table clashLeón — CF América5th v 1st in the table: 25% v 47%
What is at stake
CF América lead with 21 points from 10 matches; Toluca are second, 1 point behind. The leader’s game this round: León — CF América, 47% to win.
The matches
Saturday, 17 October
- 4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 4228311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 5825181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
Sunday, 18 October
- 3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 5028221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2529472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 6919111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
Monday, 19 October
- 4627261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
Probabilities: home win, draw, away win in 90 minutes; under the most likely outcome, its most likely score. The estimates are updated until kick-off.
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