Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira
Coritiba — Botafogo
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Botafogo to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.
Botafogo are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Botafogo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Coritiba — Botafogo What is xG? | 1.2–1.5 | |
| Coritiba not to lose | 59% | |
| Botafogo not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Coritiba
- Coritiba goals
- Botafogo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 09.10away · Fluminense0:4
- 20.09away · Vasco da Gama0:5
- 12.09Athletico Paranaense3:3
- 06.09Mirassol1:2
- 01.09away · Remo3:2
- 08.10Vasco da Gama1:2
- 19.09away · Mirassol0:2
- 17.09Grêmio3:2
- 13.09RB Bragantino1:1
- 07.09Palmeiras0:0
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Botafogo — Coritiba2:2
- 30.11.2023Coritiba — Botafogo1:1
- 30.07.2023Botafogo — Coritiba4:1
- 18.09.2022Botafogo — Coritiba2:0
- 29.05.2022Coritiba — Botafogo1:0
Table
Next matches
- BotafogoChapecoense18 October · Brasileirao7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Atlético-MGCoritiba18 October · Brasileirao6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
Brasileirao on the same day
- 5326211The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →