Chilean Liga de Primera, round 24 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Sausalito
Everton CD — La Serena
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:2Came true
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Everton CD to win (56%), came true.
Everton CD are clear favourites: 56% against 21% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Everton CD are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Everton CD — La Serena What is xG? | 1.9–1.1 | |
| Everton CD not to lose | 79% | |
| La Serena not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Everton CD
- Everton CD goals
- La Serena goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.09away · Ñublense3:1
- 06.09Universidad Católica0:1
- 30.08away · Deportes Limache3:0
- 25.08Universidad de Concepción3:1
- 16.08Audax Italiano1:1
- 13.09Universidad de Chile0:3
- 06.09Ñublense2:1
- 01.09away · Unión La Calera1:0
- 23.08Cobresal3:3
- 15.08away · Universidad de Concepción2:0
Head to head
- 11.04.2026La Serena — Everton CD1:0
- 29.08.2025Everton CD — La Serena3:1
- 13.04.2025La Serena — Everton CD2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Católica | 23 | 13 | +17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton CD | 24 | 11 | +13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | +3 | 37 |
| 10 | Ñublense | 24 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 11 | La Serena | 24 | 7 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | -5 | 28 |
Next matches
- La SerenaDeportes Concepción24 October · Chilean Primera · preliminary3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
- Universidad de ChileEverton CD27 October · Chilean Primera · preliminary6520151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
Chilean Primera on the same day
- 6320171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- 2625492The most likely outcome did not happen: 25:2Final score 5:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 5925161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →