Swedish Allsvenskan, round 26 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Hammarby — Sirius
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Hammarby are clear favourites: 60% against 19% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hammarby are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hammarby — Sirius What is xG? | 2.0–1.1 | |
| Hammarby not to lose | 81% | |
| Sirius not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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Form
- 11.10Djurgården0:1
- 20.09away · Degerfors1:0
- 13.09Brommapojkarna3:1
- 06.09away · Örgryte1:1
- 30.08away · AIK2:3
- 10.10away · GAIS1:0
- 19.09away · Örgryte2:1
- 14.09Degerfors2:0
- 05.09away · Västerås SK1:0
- 31.08Malmö FF0:1
Head to head
- 13.04.2026Sirius — Hammarby2:0
- 24.08.2025Sirius — Hammarby3:1
- 14.05.2025Hammarby — Sirius3:2
- 26.10.2024Sirius — Hammarby0:3
- 26.05.2024Hammarby — Sirius3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Sirius | 23 | 17 | +25 | 54 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Djurgården | 23 | 14 | +27 | 44 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Hammarby | 23 | 13 | +28 | 43 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | +13 | 40 |
Allsvenskan on the same day
- ÖrgryteMjällbypreliminary2927442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
- Kalmar FFGAISpreliminary3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →